300 and thirty-six days in the past, we revealed the 2025 crystal ball predictions from The White Coat Investor readers. Like nearly each different yr, I figured nearly all of them could be flawed. Perhaps some individuals would get fortunate, however we all know there’s a purpose why one of many mantras on this website is about how our crystal balls are all the time so cloudy.
After I wrote the 2025 crystal ball predictions column that ran on January 12, questions stuffed the air about how the primary yr of the second Trump administration would play out, whether or not an AI bubble would pop (the identical query we’ve requested for the previous few years), if the inventory market and crypto would proceed to be in full bull mode, and if the specter of tariffs on US allies would harm the financial system.
Practically 12 months later, the world has modified dramatically. Similar to it does yearly.
Since I’m a sucker for historical past (historic and up to date), let’s, for only a second, return to the time of January 2025—when individuals didn’t know what they didn’t know however gave valiant predictions anyway—and work out if anyone obtained something proper.
2025 Crystal Ball Prediction Outcomes
Word: all the 2025 predictions under are italicized and bolded.
From Reader Kendall, an ophthalmologist from North Carolina
- Rates of interest will solely drop by 50-75 foundation factors to maintain inflation in test.
- Dwelling costs will keep excessive as a consequence of a scarcity of provide regardless of rates of interest solely dropping minimally.
- Worth will outperform progress within the setting of imported items costing extra underneath Trump’s commerce coverage.
- Bitcoin will peak in April after which sharply drop thereafter.
- The Russian-Ukraine battle will finish in 2025 underneath Trump.
The Fed dropped rates of interest thrice in 2025 for a complete of 75 foundation factors, and residential costs nonetheless appear slightly inflated. Kendall was proper about these. His final two predictions had been incorrect. As for worth vs. progress, right here’s what the YTD totals had been on the finish of November: US worth shares had been up 14.35%; US progress shares had been up 20.03%. Progress ended up approach outperforming worth.
A collection of predictions from WCI commenter TomS Prognosticator
- A Supreme Courtroom justice shall be impeached however not eliminated.
- Nuclear fusion will get nearer, however nonetheless be just a few years away from being commercially viable.
- Bitcoin will collapse and stablecoins will develop into the darlings of the cryptocurrency world.
- Quantum computing shall be used to hack beforehand unbreakable IT safety programs, throwing everybody right into a tizzy.
- AI firms will proceed to develop at loopy charges.
- Property/casualty insurance coverage firms will begin to consolidate or collapse underneath the burden of accelerating losses as a consequence of weather-related disasters.
I’m unsure concerning the nuclear fusion or quantum computing predictions, however neither appears appropriate in the intervening time. Numerous judges have come underneath assault, however no person on the federal degree has been impeached. AI firms have continued to develop massively. Bitcoin reached as excessive as $126,000, however up to now few weeks, it’s fallen fairly laborious. I wouldn’t name {that a} collapse. No less than not but.
From monetary companies firm UBS
- We expect the US fairness market appears to be like enticing and count on the S&P 500 to hit 6,600 by the top of 2025, round 8% increased than as we speak’s ranges.
- We additionally count on inflation to maintain falling, even when selective tariffs contribute to a one-off enhance in some costs. US items costs have been in deflation for the previous three years, whereas stubbornly excessive shelter costs are easing. In our view, the Fed is prone to look previous tariff-induced worth will increase and can reduce rates of interest by an extra 100bps throughout 2025, bringing charges near our estimate of impartial (3.25%-3.50%) by the top of the yr.
- We count on gold to construct on its beneficial properties in 2025 [gold was up 26.7% in 2024].
Principally good predictions right here. The S&P almost hit $7,000 in October, and it ought to end the yr proper round its report excessive. Inflation has stayed regular, although it’s inched upward. And gold has continued to be superior (as of November 30, it was up 60.2% YTD).
From WCI columnist Charles Patterson
My predictions are perennially flawed, and so I’m going to strive one thing completely different this yr: no matter I believe, I’m going to foretell the other:
- I believe the market shall be sluggish, even over the primary portion of the yr, however will finish down 10%-15%. Subsequently, I predict that the market shall be up by 10%-15% on the finish of 2025.
- Employment shall be down, borderline recession. Subsequently, I predict that unemployment shall be at an all-time low.
- Housing shall be slower this yr, with mortgage charges rising and gross sales slipping. Subsequently, I predict that the housing market shall be robust, with costs secure.
- The geopolitical panorama shall be extra unsure than ever. Subsequently, we shall be nearer to world peace than at any time in historical past.
- We’re prone to see huge authorities slowing, in all probability a shutdown because the funding invoice looms in Q1. Subsequently, I predict that our authorities shall be extra environment friendly than ever.
Patterson was flawed (subsequently, he was proper) concerning the inventory market being up by 10%-15% (as of this writing, the Dow Jones is up about 15% and the S&P 500 is up about 17.6% on the yr). The employment fee stayed about the identical, however we’re positively NOT nearer to world peace. Oh, and the US had the longest authorities shutdown in historical past in 2025.
From analyst and author Ben Carlson
I’m pretty assured the inventory market is due for a correction. I’m not assured in any respect in my capacity to foretell the timing or magnitude of stated correction. Preparation is simpler than predictions.
By mid-April, when shares had been approach down thanks partially to the Liberation Day tariffs, it definitely regarded just like the inventory market was wavering. However that long-awaited correction hasn’t come to fruition. Perhaps 2026 shall be completely different.
From Bloomberg
[The] Magnificent 7’s 2025 revenue progress projected to sluggish to 18% [in 2024, NVIDIA, Meta, Apple, Tesla, Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft rose 33%].
In its third-quarter report, Nvidia confirmed its income was up 62% yr over yr. Amazon, up about 9.4% YTD, was the worst performer of the seven. In the event you had been following a Magnificent 7 index, you’d be up about 23.2%.
One prediction from commenter Will R
The US could have a recession.
Sooner or later, the individuals who predict this yearly shall be confirmed proper. 2025 was not that yr, nevertheless.
A collection of predictions from commenter ADRad
I’ll take a shot once more since I did fairly effectively on final yr’s predictions.
- Housing stays tight with continued slowly rising costs and decrease than anticipated drops within the 10-year Treasury.
- Worldwide even have a greater yr than US shares. Additionally, small caps lastly have their yr over giant caps.
- I additionally assume the Ukraine-Russia battle ends later this yr with Ukraine giving up a few of its territory however becoming a member of the EU and NATO.
- TikTok US will promote to remain alive.
- Trump makes tax cuts everlasting and explodes the deficit much more than his final presidency.
The ten-year Treasury yields have dropped a bit in 2025, and whereas giant caps continued to dominate, worldwide shares had been 28.76% YTD and US shares had been up 17.16% YTD, as of the top of November. And as bonkers because it sounds, TikTok STILL hasn’t been bought.
Actual property platform Redfin
Mortgage charges are prone to stay within the high-6% vary all through 2025, with the weekly common fee fluctuating all year long however averaging round 6.8%. Traders are anticipating that if President-elect Donald Trump implements a good portion of his proposed tax cuts and tariffs, and the financial system stays robust, the Fed will solely reduce its coverage fee twice in 2025, retaining mortgage charges excessive. Tariffs might be inflationary, and enacting extra tax cuts would enhance the US deficit, each of which might push mortgage charges up. Excessive mortgage charges are the second a part of the equation that may maintain homebuying unaffordable.
The Fed ended up chopping charges thrice, and mortgage charges dropped by rather less than 1%. In accordance with CBS Information, the typical mortgage fee on a 30-year time period is about 6.12%, and it’s 5.37% on a 15-year time period (in January, these charges had been 7.04% and 6.26%, respectively). So, Redfin was a bit conservative with its prediction.
Monetary Occasions
Will Bitcoin hit $200,000? Sure. Bitcoin topped $100,000 solely in December, so an extra doubling might sound a stretch—however why not? The Trump group’s wholehearted embrace of crypto, with digital asset advocates named to high Washington jobs, has already fueled the post-election ascent to report highs. Below friendlier management, the Securities and Trade Fee is anticipated to finish its aggressive lawsuits towards crypto firms and create guidelines to make Wall Road banks and asset managers extra snug to commerce and maintain crypto. An influx of institutional cash, with out the worry of lawsuits, will solely ship the worth of Bitcoin increased.
It’s going to be attention-grabbing to see what occurs to crypto. It’s been tanking currently, regardless of the administration’s whole-hearted embrace of it.
WCI Founder Dr. Jim Dahle
My crystal ball is cloudy as all the time, and I’m altering nothing in my monetary plans based mostly on these predictions.
- I do not assume we’ll have a recession, however I believe the US inventory market could have a unfavorable return this yr.
- I believe Bitcoin may even have a unfavorable return this yr after an unimaginable 2024.
- Small and worth shares will outperform giant and progress shares for the primary time in a few years.
- Inflation will proceed to be managed.
- Rates of interest shall be barely decrease at yr’s finish than at yr’s starting.
- There shall be no crash in housing costs as a consequence of ongoing restricted provide.
- There shall be a decision of the Ukraine battle that neither facet shall be thrilled with, however Russia shall be happier than Ukraine.
- Battle within the Center East will proceed to unfold.
- The Dodgers will win the World Collection.
The misses on the inventory market, Bitcoin’s efficiency, the Russia-Ukraine battle, and small and worth shares outperforming giant and progress however, calling the Dodgers’ World Collection win made up for all of it.
Total, predictors had been too pessimistic on the inventory market and a bit too optimistic on international politics. However who is aware of, all of that would change by subsequent yr.
Now, it’s your flip for 2026. Tell us within the remark part or by way of e mail ([email protected]) what’s going to occur within the new yr in relation to funds, investing, or something referring to cash. I don’t care in case your prediction is clear or outlandish, humorous or fiendish. Simply give me your finest shot at prognosticating, and we’ll publish the leads to just a few weeks.
Cash Tune of the Week
From particular visitor author Dr. Jim Dahle:
I requested Josh if he had ever used The Barenaked Women’ If I Had a $1,000,000 because the Cash Tune of the Week. As a music guru/snob, his response was primarily that it was too OBVIOUS, like utilizing Pink Floyd’s Cash.
I am an enormous fan of apparent, although, and I believe it deserves a point out.
The lyrics are basic:
“If I had 1,000,000 {dollars}, we would not must stroll to the shop/If I had 1,000,000 {dollars}, No, we might take a limousine ‘trigger it prices extra/If I had 1,000,000 {dollars}, we would not must eat Kraft dinner. However we’d eat Kraft dinner, after all we’d, we might simply eat extra. And purchase actually costly ketchups with it.”
It is a foolish but aspirational tune that many people who grew up with out a lot wealth can relate to, a bit like Chris Janson’s Purchase Me a Boat. Among the finest elements of constructing actual wealth is realizing you should purchase a complete lot greater than a ship or some additional meals with it. You possibly can actually change your life and the lives of these round you.
[AUTHOR’S NOTE: The best thing I can say about this song is that it doesn’t mention anything about Chickity China the Chinese chicken.]
Tweet of the Week
Comfortable holidays, everybody!
What are your predictions for 2026?
