July 11, 2025 (Investorideas.com Newswire) Shares proceed their consolidation as tariff information poses dangers.
The S&P 500 index gained 0.27% on Thursday, reaching a touch increased all-time excessive of 6,290.22. The market is continuous its short-term consolidation. Immediately, it’s set to open about 0.5% decrease, as indicated by futures, in response to in a single day information relating to a 35% tariff on Canada.
Investor sentiment stays elevated, as mirrored within the Wednesday’s AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, which reported that 41.4% of particular person buyers are bullish, whereas 35.6% are bearish.
The S&P 500 continues to commerce close to its all-time excessive, because the day by day chart reveals.
Nasdaq 100: Extra Uncertainty
The Nasdaq 100 closed 0.16% decrease on Thursday, underperforming the broader market. Presently, the index seems to be consolidating inside an ongoing uptrend. Whereas no unfavourable alerts have emerged, the value motion could also be forming a possible topping sample.
VIX Hits One other Native Low
Yesterday, the Volatility Index (VIX) dropped to a brand new native low of 15.70, additional supporting the energy of the fairness rally.
Traditionally, a dropping VIX signifies much less worry out there, and rising VIX accompanies inventory market downturns. Nevertheless, the decrease the VIX, the upper the chance of the market’s downward reversal. Conversely, the upper the VIX, the upper the chance of the market’s upward reversal.
S&P 500 Futures Contract Extends Consolidation Round 6,300
This morning, the S&P 500 futures contract is buying and selling barely under 6,300 after rebounding from an in a single day dip brought on by Trump’s tariff announcement. The market stays in a consolidation, which might characterize a topping sample or a flat correction earlier than one other leg increased.
Resistance stays round 6,320, with help close to 6,250.
Markets stay extremely delicate to geopolitical developments and will keep risky within the close to time period.
Crude Oil Replace: Pulling Again Once more
Crude oil closed 2.65% decrease on Thursday, falling under the $67 degree and lengthening its latest consolidation. The decline adopted a shock stock construct. Regardless of the setback, latest worth motion nonetheless marks a rebound from the sharp June 23-24 sell-off. Oil is buying and selling 0.9% increased this morning.
For oil markets particularly, these developments are value monitoring:
- The IEA reported that the oil market could also be tighter than it seems, pushed by sturdy summer time demand regardless of forecasts of a surplus because of rising provide. Refinery runs and crude burning for energy are rising, narrowing the hole between obvious provide extra and real-world demand.
- Regardless of latest output will increase, indicators like backwardation and wholesome refining margins recommend continued tightness in bodily oil markets. OPEC+ manufacturing hikes have had restricted impact on easing the market, pointing to persistent world demand for oil.
- Lengthy-term outlooks diverge: whereas the IEA expects modest demand development of 700,000 bpd in 2025, OPEC forecasts almost double that. The IEA additionally lowered its 2026-2029 demand projections, primarily because of anticipated declines in Chinese language consumption.
Oil Retraces Barely After Promote-Off
Though crude is buying and selling increased this morning, the rebound solely recovers a portion of Thursday’s losses. Key help stays round $66-67, with resistance close to $69. The present pattern seems mildly bullish or just a continued consolidation following the June sell-off.
My short-term outlook on oil stays impartial, and no positions are at the moment justified from a danger/reward standpoint.
Conclusion
The S&P 500 is anticipated to open decrease immediately, pulling again from Thursday’s document excessive. Whereas there are not any clear bearish alerts, some short-term profit-taking is feasible. Buyers are turning their focus to the upcoming quarterly earnings season, which kicks off subsequent week with main banks reporting.
Final Tuesday, I famous “I believe that within the quick time period, overbought technical situations could result in a interval of consolidation or a gentle pullback. Nevertheless, no clear bearish alerts are at the moment evident”. That outlook stays legitimate.
This is the breakdown:
- The S&P 500 hit a brand new document however stays in consolidation.
- The latest rally prolonged positive aspects for individuals who purchased based mostly on my Volatility Breakout System.
- There are not any clear bearish alerts but, however a deeper downward correction will not be out of the query in some unspecified time in the future.
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Paul Rejczak
Inventory Buying and selling Strategist
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